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A CROZET UNITED EXCLUSIVE REPORT

EASTERN AVENUE UPDATE – The Board of Supervisors will meet later today to review the County’s proposed “Finding of Public Interest (FOPI)” for potentially building the Eastern Avenue Connector under a Public Private Transportation Agreement (PPTA). 

The long-promised Connector is clearly in the public’s best interest, especially if it can be built for less than VDOT’s $39.5M cost estimate and within the next few years. A primary reason for using a PPTA to build it is to shift the key project risks (i.e. cost, schedule, and regulatory) from taxpayers to a private contractor. 

An overall project risk assessment is required before a PPTA can begin and is incorporated into the FOPI document. If the Connector project is deemed to have a “high” degree risk, the County must show how the public’s interest will be protected in the event that issues arise (see box below).

On page 4 of the FOPI, the County’s states that there is only a “medium” level of risk to this PPTA project. As a result, the County does not fully explain how it will mitigate the biggest risk facing the project: that FEMA blocks the Connector from being built in the 100-year floodplain, which would dramatically raise the project’s cost and complexity.

This risk has been repeatedly pointed out to the County by VDOT as we previously reported here. Crozet United also obtained a copy of the Risk Analysis Matrix the County used to arrive at their more recent determination included in the FOPI, an excerpt of which is shown in the box below and highlighted in red.

According to the County, there is a 0% chance that FEMA will block the Connector from being built in their regulatory floodplain. The County also notes that if FEMA were to block it, there wouldn’t be sufficient funding to complete the project. Wouldn’t it be prudent for the County to directly address this risk and figure out how to mitigate it?

The County’s FOPI also sets a $17.3M cap as the maximum public contribution taxpayers will pay to complete the Connector, a figure that is $7M less than the County’s own previous cost estimate ($24M), and $22M less than VDOT’s most recent estimate ($39.5M). 

Without a doubt, the public will be greatly served if these savings are achieved. The problem is, based on what we have learned from Project Heron, they almost certainly won’t be.

In Project Heron, Riverbend proposed building the Connector for $17M (ahem, coincidentally) using a bridge that was just 110 feet long; a full 150 feet shorter than what Albemarle County had previously proposed to VDOT, and full 330 feet shorter than VDOT’s recommended 440 foot bridge length.  

We know this because Crozet United has been able to obtain a copy of the Collins Engineering design (shown below) that the County previously said that it destroyed.

As a result of using a much shorter bridge, Riverbend’s design required it to build more than 300 linear feet of elevated roadway, supported by a huge quantity of “fill” (i.e. dirt) within the FEMA flood plain.

Therein lies the tradeoff for building a skimpy bridge: the shorter the bridge, the more you have to fill in the floodplain. The more you fill in the floodplain, the more you cause floodwaters to rise. The more you raise floodwaters, the less likely it is that FEMA will approve your bridge design.

If VDOT cautioned the County about using a 260 foot bridge for this very reason, how risky is it to use a 110 foot one?

The bottom line is this: there are enormous cost, schedule, and regulatory risks to a PPTA aimed at building the Eastern Avenue Connector for only $17.3M. This PPTA depends almost entirely upon FEMA’s regulatory approval of an inexpensive bridge design, which is highly unlikely. Unfortunately, without it, there will be no Eastern Avenue Connector in Crozet’s near future.

Citizens can ask their representatives:

1. What will the County do to ensure that the bridge design selected under this PPTA will be fully approved by FEMA, Virginia’s DEQ, and other state agencies? How much will it cost to “de-risk” bridge designs submitted by bidders before one is awarded a multimillion dollar contract?

2. Will the County consider Connector alignments that don’t require potential bidders to purchase rights-of-way from Riverbend Development on the site of the proposed Oak Bluff development? If a bidder can show that a more direct road alignment will generate cost savings the County hasn’t considered, why not let them? Doing otherwise will artificially stifle private sector innovation and limit competition under the PPTA.

3. If the County will not allow bidders to submit proposed adjustments to the road alignment, will Riverbend Development be exclusively permitted to do so in a way that gives it lucrative access to the potential Oak Bluff site, especially on the north side of Lickinghole Creek? If so, won’t this give the appearance of a quid pro quo?

4. Will the County seek approval from the Secretary of Virginia’s Department of Transportation before proceeding to an RFP for a bridge that VDOT has expressed concerns about? Should the County be the responsible public entity overseeing this PPTA or should it be VDOT?

We urge the Supervisors to address these questions at their meeting today, Wednesday August 7^th when the topic comes up at 1:40PM. Crozet citizens have patiently waited for the long-promised Connector. It is time to for their representatives to rigorously interrogate the validity of a proposal that aims to make good on that promise and ensure it is more than just smoke and mirrors.